Does black-yellow fail again?

Poll results suggest this, the camp of the undecided decides the outcome of the election

In the home stretch, the union seems to be losing further electoral favor. At least that’s what the last stern-rtl poll before the election suggests. The cdu/csu had already shrunk by 2 points to 35 percent at the beginning of the week, and in the poll published on friday it dropped by another two points.

If the trend continues until sunday, the black-yellow coalition will certainly not last, even if the fdp gains a little, as it has just done with one point to 14 percent. This put the cdu/csu and fdp together at 47 percent, with the spd, grunen and left party achieving the same figure. The upswing in the spd, however, seems to be over again. The party is down by one point to 25 percent, while the left party has gained ground, reaching 12 percent, and the greens have slipped back to 10 percent.

Of course, all this still says very little, because there are still 27 percent undecideds, which poses considerable problems for the election researchers, who have often been wrong before. According to a poll commissioned by the faz, the percentage of undecideds was as high as 35 percent at the beginning of the week. Perhaps a lot could still be mobilized to lure the zogerlichen to the vote.

It may well be that undecided voters, if the "forschungsgruppe wahlen" (election research group) in the zdf shows a victory for black-yellow (i wrote "black-money" by mistake, which may not have been so inaccurate) as close but certain, will stay at home while the other parties receive additional votes. However, since a red-red-green coalition should not come about – but who can be quite sure of that? -, the effect is probably less strong the other way around. Some will say to themselves, if already red, then rather completely red, in order to receive a correct opposition. The grunen were allowed to remain rather small, because they were not entirely trusted, whether they could not ultimately join a black-yellow coalition after all. Die fdp wird deswegen stark bleiben, weil hier diejenigen als notlosung unterschlupf finden, die auf jeden fall eine grobe koalition vermeiden wollen. However, the differences between the parties have also become increasingly clear in recent days, most recently with the wish paper from schaubles.

In this constellation it is hardly possible – even in theory – to make tactical choices. Kann gut sein, dass deswegen viele der unentschlossenen dem lager der nichtwahler beitreten. Wirklich mehrheitsfahig ware die schwarz-gelbe regierungskoalition wohl nicht, sie konnte nur dank der eigentlich verfangswidrigen uberhangmandate zum ziele kommen und dann gegen die mehrheit der wahler regieren, deren zahl sich noch erhohen wurde, wenn man die nichtwahler einbezoge. The continuation of the allegedly unloved black-red government coalition (at first, the keyboard escaped black-dead after all), on the other hand, would have been a safe bet. Everything continues like this. We already had that under kohl, so why not under merkel?? We are going around the future with steinmeier. This does not cause any excitement among the undecideds and is certainly one of the reasons why there are so many undecideds. The menu with its options and its many compulsive prohibitions of combinations is not convincing.